Three (Contrarian) Trends for 2022
Trends come and go - sometimes they prove true...and sometimes they don't.
When it comes to contrarian trends in tech, business and life in general, a one-year time horizon rarely gives enough time to prove a theory right or wrong.
But here we are at the beginning of 2022 - and here are three contrarian views on how things may (or may not) turn out in the coming months.
1.Big tech firms will morph into asset managers/private equity firms
Much has been made of how big tech companies like Apple, Amazon and Google (not to mention Alibaba, Uber, Facebook and others) have turned their eye to financial services. The incentives and the market fit are in place for the companies to make a move - at scale. But a fear of falling afoul of regulators (who may still not rise to the occasion) will ultimately make building new financial rails a daunting task. (Facebook's Libra is one example.)
What may prove much more lucrative is to put extra cash to work in the form of hybrid venture/incubation/private equity investing vehicles - either stand-alone or in partnership with traditional VC/PE firms - in order to extend control and make more money. After all, major multiples on capital are much easier to find with allocation to strong entrepreneurs than with long, drawn-out implementation of low-margin financial services.
2. Voice-enabled social networks will flourish
One darling of 2021 was Clubhouse. Its rapid rise to prominence captured attention around the world. Since then Twitter (with Spaces) and other established networks have pulled a "Facebook vs. Snapchat" and copied the feature from A to Z.
Does this mean that voice (and Clubhouse) are done? Hardly...
The lingering effects of the pandemic have shifted a fair amount of online interactions already. With renewed home-office requirements and shorter and shorter attention spans, the impetus for spontaneous, concentrated conversations around specific topics will continue. Where more developments may be necessary is when it comes to follow-up, "on-demand" access to such conversations. Here, some solutions such as Callin are already working to combine the best of both worlds - live voice chat and on-demand replay/podcasting.
3. Regulators will prove toothless
In many areas, regulation is expected to make major forays into big business. With Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar Pichai having all spent hours testifying before congressional committees and swirls of controversy around loose financial rules for big banks and fintechs alike, the general expectation is that 2022 will bring major new regulations.
There are several factors which make this unlikely.
First of all, regulators have a hard time keeping up with the pace of the world and the innovation in it. The rules they write today will be outdated almost from he moment the ink dries on the paper. Secondly, gridlock and hesitation on the part of governments around the world, but particularly in the US, will make it hard for regulatory bodies to fully flex their muscle. There is little enthusiasm to completely destroy the major sources of American influence around the world. And finally, in the face of Chinese crackdowns on major tech companies, strong-arm tactics will become less appealing as democracies seek to position themselves in opposition to authoritarian regimes.