Why Europe Needs a New Metternich
The present crisis in global relations inspires homesickness for the days of great men.
The United States has turned to Donald Trump. Russia has been blessed - or cursed, depending on your perspective - with Vladimir Putin for more than two decades.
But what kind of leader does Europe need at this present hour? Probably not a second coming of Angela Merkel.
History provides a bevy of great names to long for.
If only Winston Churchill were alive, the Old Continent would stand taller and stronger. A general like Napoleon would surely inspire respect and fear in Europe’s friends and foes alike.
Prussia’s Bismarck created a united Germany so dominant that it could barely be contained, a far cry from that country’s current state.
All of these towering figures of history stir up nostalgic longings and glimmers of past greatness.
But the kind of leader that Europe needs right now is not one of these.
Today, Europe needs a new Metternich.
Master of his craft
If Kissinger is to be believed, Klemens von Metternich, Prince of the Austrian Empire and diplomat extraordinaire was a true master magician.
As the architect of post-war Europe in 1815, he not only helped seal Napoleon’s fate, but he also masterfully propped up his own country at a time when it could easily have fallen into chaos and disaster.
Metternich’s Central Empire (Austria and conjoined national ethnic groups) was a heterogenous conglomeration, mightily weakened by the conquests of Napoleon’s armies and precariously situated between an expansionist Russia, a restless Prussia and a still lethal France.
Not to mention the simmering flames of democracy left over from the French Revolution.
Yet through his multiple manoeuvres, Metternich created a balance of power that supported Austria in spite of all her internal weaknesses and kept the peace in Europe for nearly a century.
In the process, he spun webs of control around a re-integrated France, a delicately-balanced German Confederation and most importantly for the present day, a mentally-unstable Tsar Alexandre I.
How did this patrician, conservative, condescending prince from the middle of Europe pull it off?
Very subtly…
Playing the game
In 1813, after years of being pummeled on the battlefield by Napoleon’s armies, Metternich managed to brilliantly extracted Austria from its alliance with the French emperor.
He did so while also engaging the Russians, the Prussians and the British and at the same time never exposing Austria to mortal danger with any of the other great powers.
On every front and with every interaction, Metternich skilfully maneouvred Austria into the position of the least risk, while continuing to hold all of the diplomatic strings in his hand.
He twisted and turned, retaining the maximum flexibility towards each of his rivals - who were also his partners.
And he never overplayed his hand by demanding or forcing any point - with anyone.
(Metternich’s successors in Vienna and those of Bismarck in Berlin would find out how dangerous aggressive, overt actions could be when they let things get out of hand some 50 years later…)
The result of his machinations was to set Austria up as the central actor in the post-war era, all while hiding the fact that internally the empire was full of contradictions and potentially fractious ethnic conflicts.
Thanks to hot-headedness of Austrian and German diplomats in 1914, those conflicts exploded into one of history’s bloodiest wars.
Playing hard to get
Much like Metternich’s Austria, Europe today has the potential for an explosive demise from within - or a collapse under attack from without.
Even if the European Union is more united than it has ever been in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine, the bloc remains weak geopolitically and less significant on the world stage than China, the US or Russia.
To extract it from a possibly abusive alliance with the US under Trump and yet retain a position of strength towards greater and more powerful armies to the east, Europe needs to play Metternich’s game.
It requires patience. And cunning.
And smart calculation.
It also requires “playing hard to get.”
Currently, news reports indicate that the US administration has sent a questionnaire to all European capitals asking what equipment and troops they are willing to supply to guarantee peace in Ukraine.
On the surface, such a request would seem to require an immediate and enthusiastic response. The sooner the Europeans can prove they have “the goods”, the sooner they may get a seat at the table with Trump and Putin.
That would be the wrong approach, however.
Instead, as Metternich would advise, they should do nothing.
Or very nearly nothing.
Calculations should be made, of course, and plans discussed, but the European response should be as subtle as the Austrian prince’s replies to Frederick, Alexandre and Napoleon.
Ideally, a unified European response would simply say:
The American president and his team are welcome to come to Europe on their way to Saudi Arabia in order to discuss the details.
By “playing hard to get”, Europe grows in prestige and power. Willingness to contribute and even lead cannot be questioned, but there is no need to hysterically throw around numbers in a wild attempt to win Trump’s respect.
This has the added benefit of underlining one simple fact that Trump may be unwilling to publicly acknowledge - and which some Europeans (mostly the Germans) tend to forget amid the hubbub around JD Vance’s comments in Munich:
The United States needs Europe.
As counterintuitive as it may sound today, the simple truth is that nothing will happen without Europe.
Trump’s greatest nightmare
As the US president charges forward to secure a deal on Ukraine with Putin, it is useful to consider what he might consider the worst possible outcome.
Leaving aside the outbreak of a global (nuclear) conflict, there is only result that could be worse for Donald Trump:
No deal at all
Since Donald Trump has so clearly put himself on the path towards “getting it done” with Vladimir Putin, he must get the result he wants.
Contrary to popular belief, however, a deal is not dependant on winning over the Russian president. Putin is not the key to a Ukraine peace deal.
There are, in fact, two keys to a Ukrainian peace accord:
The Ukrainians, in particular, Volodymir Zelensky
The Europeans
Whatever points are discussed and “agreed upon” between Trump and Putin in Saudia Arabia, they must still be accepted by Zelensky and the Ukrainians. They have the boots on the ground and they are the ones dying in the trenches.
There are currently no US soldiers on the front lines in Ukraine.
The threat of US aid being withdrawn completely is, of course, real and one which Kiev will carefully consider. But for Trump to ultimately twist Zelensky’s arm to surrender would only serve to make the Americans look more subservient and pro-Russian than ever.
At this point, it is likely that even the electoral mandate that Trump won in the recent US election would not entirely suffice to support such a cowardly betrayal of a country fighting for freedom.
It would also make him look weak - an anathema to the ultimate American strongman.
Which brings us to the Europeans.
Washington has little respect for the EU, its values and its capabilities. Be that as it may.
But Europe holds special key to the entire puzzle: they are (largely) responsible for the future of Ukraine.
Trump may like to dream of making Canada the 51st state of the union, but it is doubtful that he has the same in mind for Ukraine.
Where is Ukraine’s future?
In Europe…
The rebuilding of Ukraine will largely be administered through Europe. It is German, French, Polish and other European businesses that will be in pole position to access the Ukrainian market if there is peace.
If the US wants a piece of the pie - they’ll have to go through Europe.
This means that far from being in a powerful position to demand compliance, the Americans need cooperation to achieve the peace that everyone wants.
Who is it?
All of this to say that Europe - despite howlings and protestations to the contrary - may yet rise to the occasion of today’s challenges.
It will, however, take a prince to help make it happen.
Who is Europe’s Metternich today?
It could be Mark Rutte, the gregarious, but well-seasoned Secretary-General of NATO.
It could be Donald Tusk, one of the most skilled politicians that Europe has seen.
Most probably, French president Emmanuel Macron sees himself in this role, a hybrid of Metternich and France’s own Richelieu.
Or it might be a lesser-known name like Finnish president Alexander Stubb (the recent winner of WEF 2025)
Whoever it is - he or she will need the maximum dose of flexibility and the same of realism.
Dangerous times call for strong hearts, cool heads and more craftiness than Europe has seen in many years.